Bucks vs. Pacers Game 6 prediction, odds, expert pick for 5/2

Bucks vs. Pacers Odds

Thursday, May 2, 6:30 p.m., TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks became the first team in NBA history to win a playoff game without their top two regular season scorers on Tuesday night. The offense was carried by Bobby Portis and Khris Middleton, who both contributed 29 points in the 23-point win. Even Patrick Beverley was impactful on offense as he added 13 points and also lead the game in assists with 12.

The Bucks will need to repeat that level of offensive efficiency if they want to pull off the upset and extend this series to a Game 7. The Pacers have shown us time and time again that they aren't a serious defensive team, so it’s entirely possible we see the Bucks explode again.

The Bucks generated 115.0 points in the half-court and rebounded 35.5% of their misses in Game 5. Milwaukee must continue to win the rebounding battle if it wants to put itself in position to win here.

If you're looking for signs of regression, the Bucks attempted a massive 45% of their shots from the mid-range, with 16% of those coming from the “long mid-range” area, according to Cleaning the Glass. Milwaukee shot 54% on those looks and the offense will likely be reliant on Portis and Middleton converting those shots once again.

If your betting on Bucks moneyline, your basically betting on Middleton and Portis to repeat their efficient offensive performances.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers need to prioritize holding the Bucks to one shot as Indiana was destroyed on the offensive glass in Game 5. It’s difficult to win NBA games when being out-rebounded to that degree.

It was also concerning that the Pacers offense was that bad considering that they didn’t even shoot that poorly from the field. The Pacers effective field goal percentage (54%) was above average, but the offense was inefficient because Indiana was unable to generate many second chances and also turned the ball over on about 15% of its possessions.

We should see the turnovers reduce back at home as the Pacers lead the NBA in offensive turnover rate (9.6%) in the postseason. The Pacers will also need to convert on more of their 3s as they attempted a whopping 43% of their total shots from deep in Game 5. However, they only converted on 34%.

Indiana needs Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam to be more efficient shooting the ball. The other major need for the Pacers offense is Tyrese Haliburton, who simply hasn’t been impactful enough in some of the games throughout this series.

Haliburton had just six assists and 16 points in Game 5, but will need to do more if Indiana is going to win Game 6.

Bucks vs. Pacers

Betting Pick & Prediction

I’d lean toward betting Over 212.5 as I expect the Pacers to positively regress offensively in front of their home crowd. I also don’t trust their defense to get consistent stops. Look for the Pacers to push tempo in an effort to tire out this elderly Bucks squad.

Pick: Over 212.5 | Play to 214